Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 1.539326 1.628969 1.722701 1.828305 1.944323 2.068293 2.211299
2025-11-30 1.413950 1.539894 1.677707 1.840775 2.029870 2.244012 2.507426
2025-12-07 1.313482 1.457001 1.618745 1.816489 2.054486 2.335387 2.697745
2025-12-14 1.225407 1.377813 1.553376 1.773408 2.045976 2.378428 2.824310
2025-12-21 1.168180 1.329117 1.518129 1.760343 2.068397 2.455835 2.995192
2025-12-28 1.135016 1.305981 1.510515 1.778341 2.127942 2.581432 3.237533
2026-01-04 1.091161 1.266716 1.479851 1.763834 2.142497 2.646501 3.400062
2026-01-11 1.067161 1.250276 1.476011 1.782338 2.200178 2.772112 3.659087
2026-01-18 1.038638 1.226398 1.460907 1.784220 2.234113 2.865505 3.877969
2026-01-25 1.025771 1.221521 1.469525 1.817478 2.312584 3.027498 4.219473
2026-02-01 0.986928 1.181332 1.429783 1.782138 2.290526 3.037954 4.315913
2026-02-08 0.946506 1.137613 1.383560 1.735405 2.248825 3.014895 4.352514
2026-02-15 0.921545 1.114336 1.365017 1.728297 2.267474 3.090258 4.574313
2026-02-22 0.904400 1.100813 1.359088 1.738732 2.312941 3.211725 4.894884
2026-03-01 0.877088 1.072576 1.331706 1.716531 2.306635 3.247795 5.060961
2026-03-08 0.845611 1.037673 1.293787 1.677054 2.270891 3.231627 5.123526
2026-03-15 0.825221 1.017189 1.275160 1.665073 2.277469 3.287159 5.335050
2026-03-22 0.815327 1.010679 1.275773 1.681576 2.330181 3.426339 5.739054
2026-03-29 0.796590 0.991319 1.257368 1.668275 2.333212 3.477057 5.961129
2026-04-05 0.788191 0.986030 1.258814 1.685240 2.387087 3.624485 6.424261
2026-04-12 0.775665 0.974527 1.250785 1.686966 2.415076 3.725746 6.798592
2026-04-19 0.772104 0.975512 1.260882 1.717435 2.494090 3.932210 7.475438
2026-04-26 0.750918 0.950812 1.232332 1.685056 2.460968 3.914034 7.567491